New poll shows gender gap and independents fueling large lead for Delaware Democrats

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Newark, DE [Sept. 27, 2024] – Democrats look set to sweep all of the major statewide races in Delaware this November, according to a new poll from the University of Delaware’s Center for Political Communication (CPC). Democratic candidates are being boosted by a large gender gap in vote preference and strong support from Independent voters. 

Continuing recent state-level trends, majorities of likely Delawarean voters say they will vote for the Democratic candidates:

• In the presidential race, 56% say they will back Vice President Kamala Harris, with 36% voting for former President Donald Trump.
• For U.S. Senate, 52% plan to vote for Democrat Lisa Blunt Rochester, and 32% for Republican Eric Hansen.
• For U.S. House, 52% support Democrat Sarah McBride, 31% Republican John Whalen.
• In the Governor’s race, 51% back Democrat Matt Meyer, with 32% choosing Republican Mike Ramone. 

“Our poll shows Democrats on track for a good election night,” said Associate Professor Phil Jones, research director of the Center for Political Communication. “Although open seat races are usually more competitive, Delaware seems set to continue its Democratic streak.”

Source: UD CPC survey of likely Delaware voters, fielded September 11-19, 2024. The margin of error for the full sample is +/-5.76 points. Numbers may not sum to 100% due to rounding. 

The results suggest that Delaware could set several records in November. If elected, Lisa Blunt Rochester would be the first woman and person of color to represent the state in the U.S. Senate, while Sarah McBride would be the first out transgender person elected to the U.S. Congress. 

Partisan loyalties hold strong, but Independents lean to Democrats

Across all the races polled, the overwhelming majority of voters supported their own party’s candidates. In the presidential race, 85% of Republicans are planning to vote for Trump, and 94% of Democrats for Harris. 

This adds up to sizeable leads for the Democrats, given more Delawareans voters identify with the Democratic party than with the GOP. But Democratic candidates are also boosted by support from Independent voters, the CPC poll shows.

Support for major party candidates among Delaware Independents

Source: UD CPC survey of likely Delaware voters, fielded September 11-19, 2024. The margin of error for the full sample is +/-5.76 points. Numbers may not sum to 100% due to rounding.

“The Democrats’ leads are driven by overwhelming support from their own party’s voters, and Independents are often backing them over the Republican candidates,” said Jones.

Gender gap continues to widen

The poll also shows a significant gender gap in Delaware, with women voters supporting the Democrats at higher rates than men. 

Support for leading candidates among women and men

Source: UD CPC survey of likely Delaware voters, fielded September 11-19, 2024. Due to their small numbers, non-binary respondents and those who identify as another gender are not shown.

“The gender gap is a bit bigger than what we’re seeing in nationwide polling. This is probably a function of Democratic Party dominance in the state coupled with women’s greater likelihood of identifying with the Democratic Party,” explains Erin Cassese, Associate Director of the CPC. “Women voters don’t typically cross party just to vote for a female candidate, so it’s unlikely that’s what we’re seeing here.”  

Voters Focus on Economy in Final Campaign Stretch

The CPC poll shows that voters are prioritizing the economy over abortion or immigration as they make their choices.  

How voters rated the importance of different issues

Source: UD CPC survey of likely Delaware voters, fielded September 11-19, 2024. Numbers may not sum to 100% due to rounding. Respondents were asked: “How important is [ISSUE] to your vote? The most important issue; 2. A very important issue but not the most important; Somewhat important; or Not an important issue”.

Different candidates’ supporters are focused on different issues. Among those who said immigration was the most important issue to their vote, Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris 60% to 29%. For those who said abortion was the most important issue, the trend is reversed: Harris leads 79% to 15%.

 

About the Study

The 2024 Delaware Statewide Voter Survey was funded by the University of Delaware’s Center for Political Communication (CPC) with support from the College of Arts and Sciences. The study was supervised by the CPC’s Research Director, Phil Jones, a professor in the Department of Political Science and International Relations.

The study was fielded by YouGov, who interviewed an online sample of 400 registered voters from Delaware between September 11th and September 19th, 2024. Interviews were conducted in English. Statistical results are weighted by gender, age, race, education, and 2020 presidential vote choice, to best represent the electorate as a whole. Results shown are for likely voters in the sample (N=383).

The margin of error for the full sample is +/-5.76 points. YouGov supplemented its online panel with respondents from additional providers to reach the target sample size. The cooperation rate for the YouGov panelists (AAPOR RR3) was 39.2%.

For further details about the sample and methodology, please contact Phil Jones, PhD ([email protected]).

About the University of Delaware’s Center for Political Communication

The University of Delaware’s Center for Political Communication, established in 2010, is a nonpartisan, interdisciplinary center connecting academics, students, and the community to relevant issues in political communication.